Kathleen McLaughlin to win Montana Democratic Senate Primary
Kathleen McLaughlin is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Kathleen McLaughlin
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Reilly Neill 89¢
Range
1¢-89¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
0x0de7f4b3...c665
May 28, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
Identifier
0x0de7f4b3…c665
Event family
Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Reilly Neill 89¢
Current share
2%
Reilly Neill
polymarket · 0x776db9e01d9c8559071df4a0d42e9e03d9ee943dc61ce2e11378491da42dc42d
Alani Bankhead
polymarket · 0x1d7f4a41fc4406acc8c8f7aa9dd8d1a3113b217b265cc15289437b4ade8b47cc
Michael BlackWolf
polymarket · 0xf80368a8ffc1b091640840807f5737f06a85c194cf64aafe7d9b0d1bd3be313f
Michael Hummert
polymarket · 0x7513824347f82d50e4007c6b3c86551fd858a6d4054143dadd9c5c0f6c38c653
Kathleen McLaughlin
polymarket · 0x0de7f4b3c3a4ef3dfb550d20422effaa3a5d439d41f4eb77a2a7aff2a8f6c665
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Your First Prediction Market Trade: End-to-End CLI Walkthrough
Step-by-step CLI tutorial for your first prediction market trade. Install, scan, create a thesis, find edges, check liquidity, place an order, and monitor — all from the command line.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.