Mercedes AMG Motorsport · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26
Mercedes AMG Motorsport is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 11 inside KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26.
Price history
38¢ current
−36¢Contract brief
If either driver from Mercedes AMG Motorsport finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for June 7, 2026 at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mercedes AMG Motorsport
Rank
#2 of 11
Leader
Ferrari 48¢
Range
2¢-48¢
Family volume
$97
Identifier
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-MER
May 28, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 11
11 outcomes · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
Family volume
$97
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If either driver from Mercedes AMG Motorsport finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for June 7, 2026 at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
Identifier
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-MER
Event family
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$97
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Ferrari 48¢
Current share
0%
Ferrari
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-FER
Mercedes AMG Motorsport
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-MER
Red Bull Racing
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-RED
McLaren
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-MCL
Williams
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-WIL
Audi F1 Team
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-AUD
Haas F1 Team
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-HAA
Aston Martin F1 Team
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-AST
Alpine F1 Team
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-ALP
Racing Bulls
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-RAC
Cadillac
kalshi · KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MONGP26-CAD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 38% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.