MicroStrategy · Companies announcing bankruptcy before 2027
MicroStrategy is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
9¢ current
−41¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
MicroStrategy
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$8
Identifier
0x618179e1...5b51
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$8
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$8
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x618179e1…5b51
Event family
Companies announcing bankruptcy before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8
Outcomes
1
Highest price
MicroStrategy 9¢
Current share
100%
MicroStrategy
polymarket · 0x618179e144fb28458cbad29f2b30ea212dfbf9907bcfdf5d41e869aa0f085b51
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 9% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.