Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−45¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.
Outcome
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$68K
Identifier
0x48f7e0d0...3c20
May 28, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$68K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$68K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0x48f7e0d0…3c20
Event family
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$68K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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