Mistral · Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30
Mistral is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?.
Price history
1¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Outcome
Mistral
Rank
#4 of 10
Leader
OpenAI 8¢
Range
1¢-8¢
Family volume
$1.3M
Identifier
0x2e19ad82...ed8e
Jun 8, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3
Family rank
#4 of 10
10 outcomes · Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.3M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x2e19ad82…ed8e
Event family
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.3M
Outcomes
10
Highest price
OpenAI 8¢
Current share
1%
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4
xAI
polymarket · 0x20923dc0347ba0d72fef151d71911780b54eb15efc8499692f494e1e36a279ce
Meta
polymarket · 0x843256b0c49a6deab845ede353cb6201ef1f371e82d1c996ef2fd9062b605d80
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x968f57ef03b279de33218a60ccaafac50588466751dc5407a75b50bbce5b2e77
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x1372ac98d0fda64f74ad41d5c899c70b6cb7579cf0a3e717d31b51c9d75847cf
Mistral
polymarket · 0x2e19ad82a78f29bd9355d96a121488485037875a5099b733130738215985ed8e
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xa097da50c4291989dbd9a88c8c6480bf761bbca339767d8816f10cd4cfbf1aec
Nvidia
polymarket · 0xd51d5847de5fad102d1a36b03eeb0dcd68277d997e123abac30065f891420de3
Baidu
polymarket · 0x56beaa50dd1e3c6f2934420d6013018c50d671db4c474794b7c51b369388299f
Meituan
polymarket · 0xc45f66c4e5010ce03d53c5b682eaeca63ef8476ce4c0da71d51bdf99e535c7f8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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