December 31, 2027 · Will Nansen launch a token by ___
December 31, 2027 is priced at 46¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 45¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will Nansen launch a token by ___?.
Price history
46¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
December 31, 2027
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
December 31, 2027 47¢
Range
2¢-47¢
Family volume
$134K
Identifier
0x98a5b935...2bb1
May 25, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
45¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$851
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Nansen launch a token by ___?
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$134K
Orderbook snapshot
45 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
0x98a5b935…2bb1
Event family
Will Nansen launch a token by ___.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$134K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
December 31, 2027 47¢
Current share
1%
December 31, 2027
polymarket · 0x98a5b935fb06794df1512b6344b9065d3447eefecb83ffc3681eb72b36302bb1
December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0xe0565e0f941ebd327dc7f169d988cbce06dfd58f157c19a53c05eeaabe22e72f
September 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x144a0a6d2b65893c2c961952049075f40c349752376de16c11048b351cb939c3
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x57ccd0af178f695ae7ddba9b691a0f48ac25e4c32bf68e1026d50490cd8c696d
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.