SimpleFunctions

June 30 · Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by

June 30 is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 18¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

24¢ current

+7¢
25¢
May 10, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun talks with Benjamin Netanyahu between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Joseph Aoun and Benjamin Netanyahu, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome

June 30

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$5K

Identifier

0x5b87cd30...663d

May 26, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 23m ago

Implied probability

24¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 23m ago

Bid

18¢

Ask

30¢

Spread

12¢

24h volume

$257

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$5K

Orderbook snapshot

18 / 30¢

Polymarket
12¢ spread
BidSize
18¢15
17¢112
16¢8
10¢275
9¢562
8¢115
5¢244
4¢645
AskSize
30¢29
31¢11
35¢32
40¢200
50¢900
59¢34
60¢500
65¢45

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun talks with Benjamin Netanyahu between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Joseph Aoun and Benjamin Netanyahu, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x5b87cd30…663d

SF Signal
SF Index
3375.29
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$5K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

June 30 24¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3375.3%

IY (No)

336.6%

Adj IY

3375%

CRI

3

RV

799%

VR

1.35

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3375.3%
336.6%
Adj IY
3375%
3
RV
799%
VR
1.35
IAR
1.2/h

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.