Anthropic · KXOAIANTH-40
Anthropic is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXOAIANTH-40.
Price history
25¢ current
−43¢Contract brief
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Anthropic
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
OpenAI 78¢
Range
25¢-78¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
May 28, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KXOAIANTH-40
Closes
Jan 1, 2040
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2040
Identifier
KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
Event family
KXOAIANTH-40.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
OpenAI 78¢
Current share
93%
OpenAI
kalshi · KXOAIANTH-40-OAI
Anthropic
kalshi · KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.