December 31, 2026 · Will Ostium launch a token by ___
December 31, 2026 is priced at 63¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 57¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
63¢ current
−13¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$209K
Identifier
0xf9ef8c13...0970
May 28, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
57¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$209K
Orderbook snapshot
57 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xf9ef8c13…0970
Event family
Will Ostium launch a token by ___ .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$209K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
December 31, 2026 61¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 63% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.