Paraguay · KXWCGROUPWIN-26D
Paraguay is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPWIN-26D.
Price history
19¢ current
Contract brief
If Paraguay finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Paraguay
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
USA 40¢
Range
8¢-40¢
Family volume
$376
Identifier
KXWCGROUPWIN-26D-PAR
May 23, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$18
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPWIN-26D
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Family volume
$376
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Paraguay finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGROUPWIN-26D-PAR
Event family
KXWCGROUPWIN-26D.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$376
Outcomes
4
Highest price
USA 40¢
Current share
5%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.