Qatar to win FIFA World Cup Group B
Qatar is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside FIFA World Cup Group B Winner.
Price history
3¢ current
−47¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Qatar
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Switzerland 55¢
Range
3¢-55¢
Family volume
$123K
Identifier
0x2df38216...9f04
May 28, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$819
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · FIFA World Cup Group B Winner
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Family volume
$123K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Identifier
0x2df38216…9f04
Event family
FIFA World Cup Group B Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$123K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Switzerland 55¢
Current share
24%
Switzerland
polymarket · 0xbfac0154700ea285426e145725716c4ebb35f3ff1e00a3beeab0e94756b5995e
Canada
polymarket · 0xec3db24e9dd340f3e1aa8f68d730c666845c8e85f90f2a49df03290b18c66f74
Bosnia and Herzegovina
polymarket · 0xfc4f6cd761f0f4042cc22b530664140a750a5fd77672987a5c2e2a23d3a293cb
Qatar
polymarket · 0x2df38216c0a37f8441bb3b132c654783479625c179594a254a8634e77c189f04
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.