Rahm Emanuel · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01
Rahm Emanuel is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01.
Price history
13¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Rahm Emanuel
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Kamala Harris 14¢
Range
1¢-14¢
Family volume
$78
Identifier
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-REMA
May 29, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$384
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01
Closes
Nov 1, 2028
Family volume
$78
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2028
Identifier
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-REMA
Event family
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$78
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Kamala Harris 14¢
Current share
0%
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-KHAR
Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-GNEW
Rahm Emanuel
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-REMA
Jon Ossoff
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-JOSS
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-AOCA
Pete Buttigieg
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-PBUT
Wes Moore
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-WMOO
Josh Shapiro
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-JSHA
Gretchen Whitmer
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-GWHI
Andy Beshear
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-ABES
J.B. Pritzker
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-JPRI
Mark Kelly
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-MKEL
James Talarico
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-JTAL
Ro Khanna
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-RKHA
Jasmine Crockett
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-JCRO
Graham Platner
kalshi · KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV01-GPLA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.