Paul LePage · HOUSEME2-26
Paul LePage is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside HOUSEME2-26.
Price history
65¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for ME-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Paul LePage
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Paul LePage 63¢
Range
34¢-63¢
Family volume
$21K
Identifier
HOUSEME2-26-R
Sep 29, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
64¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$43K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · HOUSEME2-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$21K
Orderbook snapshot
64 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for ME-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
HOUSEME2-26-R
Event family
HOUSEME2-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Paul LePage 63¢
Current share
40%
Paul LePage
kalshi · HOUSEME2-26-R
Matt Dunlap
kalshi · HOUSEME2-26-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.