Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7. A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$15K
Identifier
0xb5fb3fd4...777e
May 24, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$57
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$15K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7. A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xb5fb3fd4…777e
Event family
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$15K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.