Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
8¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Outcome
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$3.4M
Identifier
0x3b0107a8...606c
Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$3.4M
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0x3b0107a8…606c
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 5¢, +3¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3.4M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 8¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.