Sharif Street receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary
25% - 30% is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will Sharif Street receive.
Price history
95¢ current
+77¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Sharif Street in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 25% to 29.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
25% - 30%
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
25% - 30% 95¢
Range
1¢-95¢
Family volume
$878
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-27
May 28, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
95¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$537
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Sharif Street receive
Closes
May 19, 2027
Family volume
$878
Orderbook snapshot
95 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Sharif Street in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 25% to 29.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 19, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-27
Event family
Will Sharif Street receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$878
Outcomes
7
Highest price
25% - 30% 95¢
Current share
61%
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-27
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-32
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-37
Below 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-10
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-22
40% - 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-42
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26SSTRSSTR-72
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.