December 31 · SpaceX IPO by ___
December 31 is priced at 99¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 99¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside SpaceX IPO by ___ ?.
Price history
99¢ current
+49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
December 31
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
December 31 99¢
Range
0¢-99¢
Family volume
$2.0M
Identifier
0x01759192...6b0f
May 28, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
99¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$2.0M
Orderbook snapshot
99 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x01759192…6b0f
Event family
SpaceX IPO by ___ .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.0M
Outcomes
6
Highest price
December 31 99¢
Current share
10%
December 31
polymarket · 0x01759192de454d25043610a0dff13621b60f71d867114ed86778d0e485e46b0f
September 30
polymarket · 0x58ae4880738f502cf9c3ca8e1f7747ead62c32308ca520efd16ee0f91af06415
August 31
polymarket · 0x9c01bea9b869ca2acb0c28efa8bbaba184f807c3c3cd9bccaad9e6022dfc8a19
June 30
polymarket · 0x3dbeee81527f6d4868a6e500fca15d8905a6dda0e9b1f525145a4ad813bac98e
June 15
polymarket · 0x13ca9f55fed9ce4094d90fe1ab5f63c0d371d1589dfffe247a3c1c13d6fb0477
May 31
polymarket · 0xe05f83ed91d2dcf7e744f86bbda236525eb9441bbf039c858f5438d9dc3e7431
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.