Yes · KXTSWIFTTOYSTORY-26JUN30
Yes is priced at 63¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 68¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
63¢ current
+53¢Contract brief
If Taylor Swift releases any new musical recording made publicly available on Spotify under Taylor Swift’s official discography that is officially associated with the soundtrack, promotion, or release of Toy Story 5, as reported by a Source Agency before June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yes
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$789
Identifier
KXTSWIFTTOYSTORY-26JUN30
May 27, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
64¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$789
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
Family volume
$789
Orderbook snapshot
64 / 68¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Taylor Swift releases any new musical recording made publicly available on Spotify under Taylor Swift’s official discography that is officially associated with the soundtrack, promotion, or release of Toy Story 5, as reported by a Source Agency before June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
Identifier
KXTSWIFTTOYSTORY-26JUN30
Event family
KXTSWIFTTOYSTORY-26JUN30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$789
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Yes 64¢
Current share
100%
Yes
kalshi · KXTSWIFTTOYSTORY-26JUN30
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.