10 year US Treasury yield end May 2026 above 4.35%
4.35% or above is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
88¢ current
+86¢Contract brief
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is above 4.35 % on May 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
4.35% or above
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$21
Identifier
KXNOTE10-26MAY29-T4.35
May 24, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$21
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$21
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury notes is above 4.35 % on May 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXNOTE10-26MAY29-T4.35
Event family
KXNOTE10-26MAY29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21
Outcomes
1
Highest price
4.35% or above 86¢
Current share
100%
4.35% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10-26MAY29-T4.35
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.662
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.