Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027 is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
8¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Outcome
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$810K
Identifier
0x1f45664d...4826
May 27, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$9K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$810K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x1f45664d…4826
Event family
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$810K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027 8¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.