Lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's above $1500000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT
Above $1.5M is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 91¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $.
Price history
87¢ current
+60¢Contract brief
If the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's is above $1.5M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $1.5M
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
Above $1M 94¢
Range
69¢-94¢
Family volume
$24
Identifier
KXART-LYD26-1500000
May 27, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
91¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$289
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Family volume
$24
Orderbook snapshot
91 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's is above $1.5M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Identifier
KXART-LYD26-1500000
Event family
Will the lot sold price of the Lydia (Étude pour Portrait au manteau bleu) by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$24
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above $1M 94¢
Current share
0%
Above $1M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-1000000
Above $1.25M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-1250000
Above $1.75M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-1750000
Above $1.5M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-1500000
Above $2M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-2000000
Above $2.25M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-2250000
Above $2.5M
kalshi · KXART-LYD26-2500000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 87% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.