Lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's above $4800000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT
Above $4.8M is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $.
Price history
88¢ current
+86¢Contract brief
If the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's is above $4.8M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $4.8M
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Above $4.8M 89¢
Range
49¢-89¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXART-PORT26-4800000
May 27, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$456
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's is above $4.8M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Identifier
KXART-PORT26-4800000
Event family
Will the lot sold price of the Portrait de Paul Hugot by Gustave Caillebotte on Sotheby's be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Above $4.8M 89¢
Current share
0%
Above $4.8M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-4800000
Above $4.6M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-4600000
Above $5M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-5000000
Above $5.2M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-5200000
Above $5.6M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-5600000
Above $5.4M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-5400000
Above $5.8M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-5800000
Above $6M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-6000000
Above $6.2M
kalshi · KXART-PORT26-6200000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.