Lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's above $3000000 during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT
Above $3M is priced at 89¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $.
Price history
89¢ current
+70¢Contract brief
If the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's is above $3M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $3M
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
Above $2.5M 97¢
Range
70¢-97¢
Family volume
$262
Identifier
KXART-WOM26-3000000
May 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$204
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Family volume
$262
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's is above $3M during the live auction beginning June 24, 2026, 01:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 25, 2026
Identifier
KXART-WOM26-3000000
Event family
Will the lot sold price of the Woman in a Grey Sweater by Lucian Freud on Sotheby's be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$262
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Above $2.5M 97¢
Current share
0%
Above $2.5M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-2500000
Above $2.75M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-2750000
Above $3M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-3000000
Above $3.75M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-3750000
Above $3.25M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-3250000
Above $3.5M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-3500000
Above $4M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-4000000
Above $4.25M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-4250000
Above $4.5M
kalshi · KXART-WOM26-4500000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 89% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.