Margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff between 20% and 25%
Colin Allred, 20-25% is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 9 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
13¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Colin Allred, 20-25%
Rank
#7 of 9
Leader
Colin Allred, 5-10% 30¢
Range
1¢-30¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P22
May 24, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$456
Family rank
#7 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
May 26, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff falls within 20% to 25%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 26, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P22
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Colin Allred, 5-10% 30¢
Current share
0%
Colin Allred, 5-10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P7
Colin Allred, 10-15%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P12
Julie Johnson, 0-5%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P2
Colin Allred, 0-5%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P2
Colin Allred, 15-20%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P17
Colin Allred, ≥25%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P62
Colin Allred, 20-25%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-CALL-P22
Julie Johnson, ≥10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P55
Julie Johnson, 5-10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-TX33D26-JJOH-P7
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.