SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets — 74 contracts, SF signal on every row.

74 live Kalshi contracts (60 audited). Median implied probability sits at 10%. 20 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P57 +81c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPRIMARYMOV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPRIMARYMOV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPRIMARYMOV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPRIMARYMOV",
    "label": "2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 74,
    "volume24hSum": 33054.56,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 10 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$33.1K-60%
min $11.0Kmax $1.7M
Breadth-100%-190.5pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 02:30 UTC
Aug 3past 7d · UTCAug 10 · 00:23

Live contracts

74

Median IY

10¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$33.1K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+81¢

KXPRIMARYMOV-HI01D26-ECAS-P57

2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets — liquidity topography (top 35 of 74 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 15.1 → 3246.0%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d365d3246.01630.515.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets

Showing top 20 of 74

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Francesca Hong, ≥15%48¢
IY 108%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 332%Resid —$17.2K
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 12% and 15%?: Ed Case, 12-15%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.8K
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?: Francesca Hong, 12-15%10¢
IY 896%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.7K
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: Francesca Hong, 0-3%10¢
IY 896%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 582%Resid —$2.1K
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 3% and 6%?: Ed Case, 3-6%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.7K
Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: David Crowley, 0-3%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.6K
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?: Francesca Hong, 6-9%11¢
IY 806%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.3K
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?: Francesca Hong, 3-6%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$970
Will the margin of victory for Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Mike Lindell, ≥15%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$477
Will the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary be at least 25%?: Jared Moskowitz, ≥25%51¢
IY 94%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$360
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?: Lisa Demuth, 9-12%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$315
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: Lisa Demuth, 0-3%13¢
IY 666%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$314
Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Lisa Demuth, ≥15%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$314
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?: Francesca Hong, 9-12%12¢
IY 730%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 631%Resid —$289
Will the margin of victory for Angie Craig in the 2026 Minnesota Senate Democratic primary be between 6% and 9%?: Angie Craig, 6-9%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?: Mike Lindell, 9-12%10¢
IY 896%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary be between 0% and 5%?: Darline Graham, 0-5%14¢
IY 612%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$64
Will the margin of victory for Randy Fine in the 2026 FL-06 Republican primary be between 40% and 50%?: Randy Fine, 40-50%11¢
IY 791%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$56
Will the margin of victory for Jared Moskowitz in the 2026 FL-25 Democratic primary be at least 20%?: Jared Moskowitz, ≥20%61¢
IY 62%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 325%Resid —$49
Will the margin of victory for Mike Lindell in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: Mike Lindell, 0-3%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$48
74 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets

From market_changes
20h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be at least 15%?: Ed Case, ≥15%
92¢11→92 (+81)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 0% and 3%?: Ed Case, 0-3%
5¢20→5 (-15)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Jarrett Keohokalole in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 0% and 3%?: Jarrett Keohokalole, 0-3%
1¢14→1 (-13)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 3% and 6%?: Ed Case, 3-6%
3¢14→3 (-11)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 6% and 9%?: Ed Case, 6-9%
1¢11→1 (-10)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Jarrett Keohokalole in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 3% and 6%?: Jarrett Keohokalole, 3-6%
1¢8→1 (-7)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Ed Case in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary be between 0% and 3%?: Ed Case, 0-3%
20¢13→20 (+7)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Francesca Hong, ≥15%
46¢53→46 (-7)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 Aug 2026 01:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPRIMARYMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →