SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets — 36 contracts, SF signal on every row.

36 live Kalshi contracts (60 audited). Median implied probability sits at 6%. 3 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPRIMARYMOV-PA3D26-CRAB-P17 -84c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPRIMARYMOV.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPRIMARYMOV
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPRIMARYMOV
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPRIMARYMOV",
    "label": "2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 36,
    "volume24hSum": 3546.22,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 28 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-3951.0
Vol Flow$3.5K-81%
min $3.1Kmax $47.5K
Breadth-100%-80.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 10:45 UTC
May 22past 6d · UTCMay 28 · 10:23

Live contracts

36

Median IY

6¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$3.5K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-84¢

KXPRIMARYMOV-PA3D26-CRAB-P17

2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets — liquidity topography (top 12 of 36 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 5.4 → 2613.8%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d2613.81309.65.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets

Showing top 20 of 36

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the margin of victory for Spencer Pratt in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 0%?: Spencer Pratt wins19¢
IY 464%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 277%Resid —$1.3K
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 12% and 16%?: Karen Bass, 12-16%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.0K
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 8%?: Karen Bass, 4-8%17¢
IY 532%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$361
Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 2% and 4%?: Xavier Becerra, 2-4%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$184
Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2%?: Steve Hilton, 0-2%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$184
Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 2%?: Xavier Becerra, 0-2%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$184
Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 25% and 30%?: Andy Barr, 25-30%95¢
IY 5.4%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$121
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be above 20%?: Karen Bass, ≥20%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$102
Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be above 10%?: Xavier Becerra, ≥10%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$51
Will the margin of victory for Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary be above 10%?: Steve Hilton, ≥10%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$51
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 16% and 20%?: Karen Bass, 16-20%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$18
Will the margin of victory for Chris Rabb in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary be between 15% and 20%?: Chris Rabb, 15-20%29¢
IY 251%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$15
Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be above 25%?: Colin Allred, ≥25%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Chris Rabb in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary be between 10% and 15%?: Chris Rabb, 10-15%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Mike Collins in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican Senate primary be between 10% and 15%?: Mike Collins, 10-15%26¢
IY 292%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 582%Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Republican U.S. Senate primary be between 30% and 35%?: Andy Barr, 30-35%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be above 50%?: Graham Platner, ≥50%91¢
IY 9.6%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Colin Allred in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff be between 20% and 25%?: Colin Allred, 20-25%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Burt Jones in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?: Burt Jones, 3-6%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will the margin of victory for Burt Jones in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary be between 6% and 9%?: Burt Jones, 6-9%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
36 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets

From market_changes
16h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Chris Rabb in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary be between 15% and 20%?: Chris Rabb, 15-20%
12¢96→12 (-84)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Burt Jones in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?: Burt Jones, 3-6%
9¢20→9 (-11)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Burt Jones in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?: Burt Jones, 3-6%
4¢9→4 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 28 May 2026 10:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPRIMARYMOV →

Category view

All Kalshi Elections markets. /markets/category/elections →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →