80° to 81° · Will the maximum temperature
80° to 81° is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Will the maximum temperature.
Price history
25¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the maximum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for May 28, 2026, is between 80-81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
80° to 81°
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
82° to 83° 68¢
Range
1¢-68¢
Family volume
$21K
Identifier
KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-B80.5
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the maximum temperature
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$21K
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 29¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the maximum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for May 28, 2026, is between 80-81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-B80.5
Event family
Will the maximum temperature.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
82° to 83° 68¢
Current share
23%
82° to 83°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-B82.5
80° to 81°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-B80.5
79° or below
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-T80
86° to 87°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-B86.5
84° to 85°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-B84.5
88° or above
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26MAY28-T87
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.