Option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada pass
the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
20¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXALBERTASEPREF-26
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 19, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 19, 2027
Identifier
KXALBERTASEPREF-26
Event family
KXALBERTASEPREF-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada 20¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 20% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.