Rate of core PCE inflation above 0.3% in June 2026
Above 0.3% is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 68¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.
Price history
39¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.3% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 0.3%
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Above 0.0% 98¢
Range
16¢-98¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.3
May 27, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
68¢
Reported volume
$338
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.3% in June 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.3
Event family
Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 0.0% 98¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.