USA · KXMENWORLDCUP-26
USA is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXMENWORLDCUP-26.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If USA wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
USA
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
France 17¢
Range
1¢-17¢
Family volume
$1.2M
Identifier
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US
May 28, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$115K
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMENWORLDCUP-26
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
Family volume
$1.2M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If USA wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
Identifier
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US
Event family
KXMENWORLDCUP-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.2M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
France 17¢
Current share
10%
France
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR
Spain
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-ES
England
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB
Portugal
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT
Brazil
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-BR
Argentina
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR
Germany
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-DE
Netherlands
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NL
Colombia
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-CO
Norway
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NO
Japan
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-JP
Senegal
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-SN
USA
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US
Morocco
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-MA
Mexico
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-MX
Ecuador
kalshi · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-EC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
sports
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.