What is the current probability for "Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 18, 2028. 819 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 217.7% and 9.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing July 18, 2028. France is priced at a modest 16% probability despite being a perennial World Cup contender, reflecting skepticism about back-to-back titles following their 2018 win and 2022 runner-up finish.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 17/18¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $86,978.55·OI $1,322,097.46·Closes Jul 18, 2028·819d remaining

KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR

7-day price5 snapshots · 129 regime

17¢17¢ current

Apr 915¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

France is priced at a modest 16% probability despite being a perennial World Cup contender, reflecting skepticism about back-to-back titles following their 2018 win and 2022 runner-up finish. The asymmetric implied yields (232.7% for Yes vs. 8.4% for No) signal meaningful conviction among No holders, though the $1.15M open interest and tight 0¢ spread suggest reasonable liquidity for a long-dated event market. The price has declined 1¢ over seven days and faces moderate cliff risk (5/10), typical for tournament markets approaching their 824-day expiration window.

Resolution rules

If France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 217.7%

IY (No) 9.1%

Adj IY 102%

CRI 5

Overround -0.2%

LAS 0.06

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	217.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	102%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 11:00:27 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:53:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →