SimpleFunctions

Tomas Machac to win the Machac vs Zverev

Will Tomas Machac win the Machac vs Zverev: Round Of 64 match is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

15¢ current

+8¢
10¢
May 24, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Tomas Machac wins the Machac vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will Tomas Machac win the Machac vs Zverev: Round Of 64 match

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$5K

Identifier

KXATPMATCH-26MAY27MACZVE-MAC

May 26, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 2h ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 2h ago

Bid

14¢

Ask

15¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jun 10, 2026

Family volume

$5K

Orderbook snapshot

14 / 15¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
14¢41K
13¢16K
12¢4.2K
9¢504
8¢1.0K
AskSize
15¢5.4K
16¢29K
17¢35K
18¢20K
19¢11K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Tomas Machac wins the Machac vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 10, 2026

Identifier

KXATPMATCH-26MAY27MACZVE-MAC

SF Signal
SF Index
7223.84
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$5K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Tomas Machac win the Machac vs Zverev: Round Of 64 match 15¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

15558.6%
412.3%
Adj IY
7224%
6
LAS
0.07

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.