Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026 is priced at 17¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$35K
Identifier
0x873debbe...44c2
Jun 7, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$35K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$35K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x873debbe…44c2
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$35K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026 17¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.