Will Trump declare war on Iran by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 13%, Polymarket at 15%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
2 contracts
Polymarket
15%
9 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 13¢ · Polymarket 15¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (13¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (15¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Trump m” vs “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Trump m
Cluster 2
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31
0x2f224f…519d
Cluster 3
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31
0x328517…58f4
Cluster 4
Will Trump visit Greenland by
Will Trump visit Greenland by...?: December 31
0x840fe2…2a98
Cluster 5
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?: June 30
0xeeb715…1683
Cluster 6
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Howard Lutnick
0x6eb866…8483
Cluster 7
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?: December 31, 2026
0xf53d2c…571a
Cluster 8
Who will Trump pardon before 2027
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?: Edward Snowden
0x07d488…f7cf
Cluster 9
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Cluster 10
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran?: Iran
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-IRA
What moved the line
- Jun 3December 31, 2026↑13pp22→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5December 31, 2026↑12pp28→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6June 30↓11pp41→30¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6December 31↓7pp16→9¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4December 31, 2026↓7pp35→28¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 4d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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