Will Venezuela become 51st state
Will Venezuela become 51st state is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
−46¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Venezuela become 51st state
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$338K
Identifier
0x8ded2408...e174
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$85
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$338K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x8ded2408…e174
Event family
Will Venezuela become 51st state.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$338K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Venezuela become 51st state 4¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.