Will Venezuela become 51st state
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
220 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Venezuela become 51st state
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
0x8ded24…e174
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment of the likelihood that Venezuela could be admitted as a U.S. state by some future date. The 4% level suggests traders view this as a low-probability outcome. The probability is shaped primarily by geopolitical dynamics, including U.S.-Venezuela relations and regional political shifts, alongside any potential constitutional or legislative changes required in both countries. Key uncertainties that could shift this estimate include major shifts in Venezuelan governance, significant changes in U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela, or major economic developments that alter the political calculus. Currently, no imminent resolution date or specific legislative timeline exists, meaning this reflects longer-term speculation about possible future scenarios.
- ›Current U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic relations and sanctions regime, which would need substantial normalization as a prerequisite
- ›Constitutional requirements in both countries, including two-thirds Senate approval needed in the U.S. and likely Venezuelan national approval
- ›Venezuela's current political and economic trajectory, including governance stability and international recognition
- ›Historical precedent and political willingness in Congress to pursue territorial expansion or new state admission
- ›Demographic and geopolitical factors that could incentivize or discourage such an outcome at the bilateral or hemispheric level
Recently closed in general
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
- Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jan 1, 2027last 82% · 0d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 0d
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinetlast 95% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.