Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing February 28, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,349 open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the wide 2¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,349 open interest, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the wide 2¢ spread. The 931.6% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the low base price rather than genuine opportunity, as Venezuelan production has faced structural declines and sanctions that make reaching 1.5m bpd highly unlikely within the timeframe. With 317 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the recent 1¢ price decline warrants monitoring, though the moderate Cliff Risk Index of 8 suggests no imminent resolution catalyst.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf0904ab7e7487a656dda050756cfdbdb0a9a4bd9bed24d6d7cf85c3b349e825c yes 100