Tom Nelson to win Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary
Tom Nelson is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 13 inside Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner.
Price history
0¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Tom Nelson
Rank
#7 of 13
Leader
Mandela Barnes 42¢
Range
0¢-42¢
Family volume
$81K
Identifier
0xd07d7415...ff11
Jun 12, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$84
Family rank
#7 of 13
13 outcomes · Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Family volume
$81K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Identifier
0xd07d7415…ff11
Event family
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$81K
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Mandela Barnes 42¢
Current share
3%
Mandela Barnes
polymarket · 0x0f1843cae1fa85c263c1f8118554fcff73f8af53d58d0f9fa5283490e69a7d94
Francesca Hong
polymarket · 0x00925aafdbb3fbec14b49f343eb430ddb9cc1f827e5934b5513703d13f2851de
Sara Rodriguez
polymarket · 0x6bb7b47236aafe3cde3389214c31055abaa815b7170d9c12dcbea43b8a884925
David Crowley
polymarket · 0xf23716a3fdb338cdc046144994d9b451cc8d7a7a7d1d3296e4252499a2edc1f7
Kelda Roys
polymarket · 0x80c4071050deed492007cc230a0e8c913a876c6c54d87f0892c18a9d7517d2b2
Brett Hulsey
polymarket · 0x7591555301baf2f0cbfbddce041adcc911e1316dec33f9383a75c977d5191dc2
Chris Larson
polymarket · 0xeb823dc6aec5a66cb957502d8b3a9f18e8f2bc671896a85d58f4ed82e37715f0
Joel Brennan
polymarket · 0xdda5fffe8bf55eb8409b9cf35a3a79b829cead72dd793f315012f2a8dcc94e7b
Melissa Agard
polymarket · 0x85c557acf289653ea8370cf63fb73140c628d4b7837a063d8f7d816e1094cbbd
Missy Hughes
polymarket · 0xe77345ea0ddb380b7a27d58325b85bf9783f69bb31fff33ec1d3d4ce3c1b5586
Zachary Roper
polymarket · 0xaceb04c32253c46ef1a91713e09faad04c39d49520e20e63053c89fb567dc7dc
Tom Nelson
polymarket · 0xd07d7415d1263b061f9c8d104b976ba3f6bb29280cbc145e8a6a27ab2c94ff11
Tim Jacobson
polymarket · 0x5df5042e805aefd44b455aa37ebdeddc72c2f67fd240a08af3594bef7abcf5b8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.