SimpleFunctions

Lautaro Martínez · World Cup: Most Goal Contributions

Lautaro Martínez is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 21¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside World Cup: Most Goal Contributions.

Price history

10¢ current

4¢
0¢10¢20¢
May 25, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Lautaro Martínez

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

Kylian Mbappé 25¢

Range

0¢-25¢

Family volume

$10K

Identifier

0xb1ffbfa3...e751

Jun 8, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

10¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

Ask

22¢

Spread

21¢

24h volume

$69

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · World Cup: Most Goal Contributions

Closes

Jul 20, 2026

Family volume

$10K

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 22¢

Polymarket
21¢ spread
BidSize
100¢108
0¢205
0¢49
0¢101
AskSize
22¢6
22¢10
23¢21
23¢30
25¢28
25¢100
26¢45
27¢20

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to the player who records the most goal contributions combined through all rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. For the purpose of this market, a goal contribution is defined exclusively as the number of combined goals and assists a player has recorded. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA World Cup rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 20, 2026

Identifier

0xb1ffbfa3…e751

SF Signal
SF Index
6428.11
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at .

View counterpart

Event family

World Cup: Most Goal Contributions.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$10K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Kylian Mbappé 25¢

Current share

4%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Kylian Mbappé

polymarket · 0xe973a0ad56ba34349854cd9cfb23be1d8cc57e9479d24891f2517bdf99ded943

25¢
$1K$430.1

Lamine Yamal

polymarket · 0xd9a5f800e3c7f71e239af245f420e9f9bb478a7b095b7ea4707350ba143552aa

18¢
$949$30.3

Harry Kane

polymarket · 0x2e1a9087073f52e91b2792f0b69dcabf5617c6b1f63af1004b9a0fed9d6a4937

18¢
$513$90.6

Son Heung-min

polymarket · 0x75ff0bb559cd61c71786b918d8c9e6589e23db71024efa384a9e7794fd1155e5

12¢
$411$0

Erling Haaland

polymarket · 0xe7fa55fca14e385bda2b593ede9336c257e9538682e277926d957984f9e2eb05

11¢
$1K$20.8

Arda Güler

polymarket · 0x374b1c5db44479844e5e492239538846ab929fdb68f23ae79cef118d42fd1525

11¢
$450$160

Luis Díaz

polymarket · 0xdbb95b95d82e5a940473a734e0dd6011e9bb5b86da82174e09e9dfdd3ef0a60b

11¢
$412$01.8

Jamal Musiala

polymarket · 0xba273c62ccfa3d0f96354729f4ff4ada03e1b079f2c5a53b4b8bb645353b7d2b

10¢
$483$1701.9

Enner Valencia

polymarket · 0x6c10654178d9b6751f2377e37055164636564e4c3e912f2e64e32c4551cd8a86

10¢
$410$226

Lautaro Martínez

polymarket · 0xb1ffbfa31f55ac9101a4703bf65749b4b9f26596868ed0d43ea6c685db3fe751

10¢
$409$69

Cody Gakpo

polymarket · 0x2e3ea47a0bdce16e7774dd18e13516954a70ced677d0623bab6ae808b6fec34f

5¢
$485$01.6

Santiago Giménez

polymarket · 0x9699b98ddb5f7b4675ccc5a2d4c3199850c81cfb900ff8642b84fe50204cd2a9

5¢
$350$0

Hannibal Mejbri

polymarket · 0xd046f3b311fb80d3b1c99f32badad00cdc46a1ee327b822d2b474ef48849fcd8

4¢
$332$0

Viktor Gyökeres

polymarket · 0x0913b468ec4de72c4dcf8fc9fd25e6cb09d413ad938c6d2dbb3f87db2909e0d3

2¢
$633$220

Romelu Lukaku

polymarket · 0x20f5914d9152ab5f649c6fc9142db2b907c4e83a9e0383dd40f027c83485c54f

1¢
$394$73

Julio Enciso

polymarket · 0x408998eaca3b84b9fb14e3319267e2813e8cdb34a39a7c93807da7903071d785

0¢
$382$0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6428.1%

IY (No)

119.5%

Adj IY

6428%

CRI

7

RV

2920%

VR

4.82

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6428.1%
119.5%
Adj IY
6428%
7
RV
2920%
VR
4.82
IAR
2.6/h
Overround
1.2%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.