Pittsburgh vs Texas first 5 innings winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
20 contracts
Top contract
44¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Toronto vs Minnesota first 5 innings winner” vs “San Francisco vs Tampa Bay first 5 innings winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Toronto vs Minnesota first 5 innings winner
Toronto vs Minnesota first 5 innings winner?: Toronto wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031245TORMIN-TOR
Toronto vs Minnesota first 5 innings winner?: Minnesota wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031245TORMIN-MIN
Toronto vs Minnesota first 5 innings winner?: Tie
KXMLBF5-26MAY031245TORMIN-TIE
Cluster 2
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay first 5 innings winner
Cluster 3
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis first 5 innings winner
Cluster 4
Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings winner
Cluster 5
Cleveland vs A's first 5 innings winner
Cluster 6
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh first 5 innings winner
Cluster 7
Milwaukee vs Washington first 5 innings winner
Milwaukee vs Washington first 5 innings winner?: Milwaukee wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031335MILWSH-MIL
Cluster 8
Baltimore vs New York Y first 5 innings winner
Baltimore vs New York Y first 5 innings winner?: New York Y wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY
Cluster 9
Houston vs Boston first 5 innings winner
Houston vs Boston first 5 innings winner?: Houston wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031335HOUBOS-HOU
Cluster 10
New York M vs Los Angeles A first 5 innings winner
Cluster 11
Chicago WS vs San Diego first 5 innings winner
Chicago WS vs San Diego first 5 innings winner?: Chicago WS wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031610CWSSD-CWS
Cluster 12
Atlanta vs Colorado first 5 innings winner
Atlanta vs Colorado first 5 innings winner?: Colorado wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031510ATLCOL-COL
Cluster 13
Philadelphia vs Miami first 5 innings winner
Philadelphia vs Miami first 5 innings winner?: Miami wins first 5 innings
KXMLBF5-26MAY031340PHIMIA-MIA
What moved the line
- May 3Cleveland wins first 5 innings↑21pp2→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 3A's wins first 5 innings↑15pp2→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tampa Bay wins first 5 innings↑11pp33→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Los Angeles A wins first 5 innings↓10pp37→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Kansas City wins first 5 innings↑7pp35→42¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.