AI chat · Kalshi + Polymarket · 35,950 contracts
AI chat for prediction markets.
Ask any question across 35,950 live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. The AI calls real tools — search, screen, inspect, calibration — and returns cited tickers, prices, and a calibrated second opinion.
Live contracts
35,950
Kalshi + Polymarket
Aggregated questions
3,879
1,331 contested
Cross-venue gaps
109
≥5pp Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live SimpleFunctions theses
6
active analyst stances
SimpleFunctions Index
Steady — no dominant macro signalDisagreement
47
0-100
GeoRisk
11
0-100
Breadth
+0.15
-1 to +1
Activity
100
rolling
Where the market is uncertain
coin-flip distance · liquidity-weightedWho will become a UFC champion in 2026
sports · 20 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Who will be arrested before 2027
general · 20 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Winner
general · 20 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
general · 11 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria
general · 11 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026
technology · 10 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Valantis FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M
general · 8 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol
general · 8 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Biggest cross-venue gaps
Kalshi vs Polymarket spreadSouth Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+
K 90¢ vs P 20¢ · kalshi higher
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%
K 90¢ vs P 20¢ · kalshi higher
Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <0.0%
K 88¢ vs P 20¢ · kalshi higher
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship
K 13¢ vs P 81¢ · polymarket higher
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers
K 74¢ vs P 10¢ · kalshi higher
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers - More Markets
K 74¢ vs P 10¢ · kalshi higher
Predictions we track
topic feeds with live market countsLive analyst theses
causal model + edge tracking + Brier-scoredCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
36%33 edges · active
Steyer-related markets show significantly increased buyer interest with a massive drop in sell-side depth, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment despite lack of major st
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
35%19 edges · active
The field remains fluid with Steve Hilton showing unexpected momentum in recent polls, which complicates the primary path but does not invalidate the Mahan-centric thesis. Confiden
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department,
45%218 edges · active
Thesis confidence increased as diplomatic mediation efforts by Pakistan and direct U.S.-Iran talks on uranium enrichment reinforce the 'Hormuz stability via diplomacy' baseline. Ma
US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed
50%114 edges · active
The US military buildup in the Middle East has intensified, signaling increased resource diversion and a longer sustainment timeline. Market confidence in the original thesis dropp
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
44%267 edges · active
Recent market signals, including fluctuations in BTC and gold prices, reflect ongoing volatility but do not fundamentally alter the long-term thesis regarding de-dollarization and
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
50%193 edges · active
The thesis remains intact as the core power struggle between Trump, Powell, and Warsh persists, though confidence is slightly adjusted downward due to mixed signals on CPI and labo
How it works
01
Tell SimpleFunctions what you think
Type any view in plain English. No need to know contract tickers or indicators upfront. SimpleFunctions asks 1-2 clarifying questions if your view is ambiguous.
02
SimpleFunctions surfaces the markets that price your view
Across 33,000+ contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, the AI agent finds the contracts that reflect your specific belief. Each cited market shows live price, volume, expiry.
03
See the three-way gap
Your probability vs market consensus vs SimpleFunctions's calibrated view. Disagreement is where the trade lives. Save the thesis to track it over time, Brier-scored on resolution.
Why this exists
35,950 live contracts
Kalshi + Polymarket normalized, refreshed continuously. Live spreads, depth, cross-venue arb. Cited tickers in every answer.
See live odds →6 live analyst theses
Quantitative cases with confidence + edge estimates. Updated via gitMode (refinement / fork) as evidence shifts.
Browse theses →669,844 markets graded
2+ months of t-24h prediction-vs-outcome history. SimpleFunctions predictions Brier-scored as theses resolve.
See full track record →80+ tools the AI can call
Real-time price lookup, indicator computation, cross-venue scan, history fetch, calibration query. The agent decides which to use mid-conversation.
Read the docs →Calibration disclosure (live)
Full framework →Status: framework live · scoring SimpleFunctions theses as they resolve
Marketwide baseline: Brier 0.258 · hit rate 73% (669,844 markets graded at t-24h)
SimpleFunctions predictions: Tracking… (first SimpleFunctions theses resolving — per-topic Brier appears here as resolutions land)
Frequently asked
What is this — ChatGPT for prediction markets?▾
Yes, exactly. SimpleFunctions is an AI chat that searches 33,000+ live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. Ask any question — "what does the market think about a Fed cut in June?", "show me cross-venue gaps in crypto" — and the AI calls real tools (search, screen, inspect, calibration) to answer with cited tickers, prices, and edge estimates.
How is this different from ChatGPT or Perplexity?▾
ChatGPT and Perplexity synthesize what's been written. SimpleFunctions synthesizes what's being priced — across 33,000+ live prediction-market contracts — with a calibrated second opinion based on its own indicators and Brier-scored track record. The output isn't a synthesis paragraph; it's a tradeable thesis row.
Does it support Kalshi AND Polymarket?▾
Both. Markets are normalized cross-venue, so the AI can spot price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket contracts on the same event. Search, inspect, screen, and history tools cover both venues uniformly.
Does SimpleFunctions make trading decisions for me?▾
No. SimpleFunctions surfaces the markets, shows the gap between your view, market consensus, and SimpleFunctions's calibrated view, and proposes a trade idea. You decide whether to execute. SimpleFunctions does not place trades from /ask.
Can SimpleFunctions be wrong?▾
Yes. SimpleFunctions discloses its full calibration history publicly. Disagreements between SimpleFunctions and the market are signal, not certainty — sometimes the market is right.
What data does SimpleFunctions use to form its view?▾
Three sources: (a) live prediction-market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, (b) live analyst theses with edge estimates, (c) calibrated indicators (implied yield, expected edge, liquidity-adjusted spread, regime detection). All three are queryable mid-conversation.
Why do I need an account to chat?▾
Theses are persistent, trackable, evaluation-graded objects in SimpleFunctions's thesis system. That requires an account. Reading the live odds, theses, and predictions on this page is free without an account.
Can I keep my thesis private?▾
Yes. Theses default to private. Only when you explicitly click "Publish" does it appear at /thesis/[slug] indexable by Google. You can also unpublish at any time.
Start chatting with prediction markets.
Free account · Track unlimited private theses · Publish when ready