AI chat · Kalshi + Polymarket · 30,023 contracts
AI chat for prediction markets.
Ask any question across 30,023 live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. The AI calls real tools — search, screen, inspect, calibration — and returns cited tickers, prices, and a calibrated second opinion.
Live contracts
30,023
Kalshi + Polymarket
Aggregated questions
2,031
633 contested
Cross-venue gaps
0
≥5pp Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live SimpleFunctions theses
5
active analyst stances
SimpleFunctions Index
Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probabilityDisagreement
31
0-100
GeoRisk
0
0-100
Breadth
+0.44
-1 to +1
Activity
14
rolling
Where the market is uncertain
coin-flip distance · liquidity-weightedWill Democratic win the House race for PA-14
general · 19 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Japan unemployment rate in Mar 2026
economy · 18 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will average **gas prices** be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026
general · 13 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13
politics · 12 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will both teams score
general · 11 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will Suzzanna Tanner advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary
general · 11 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will the team with the last pick of the draft select a Linebacker with the last pick
general · 7 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above 0% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in 2026
general · 5 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Predictions we track
topic feeds with live market countsLive analyst theses
causal model + edge tracking + Brier-scoredCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
40%26 edges · active
Primary results confirm a Becerra vs. Hilton general election, successfully validating the 'Steyer overvalued' component while rendering the 'Republican lockout' scenario impossibl
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
28%13 edges · active
Thesis confidence stable with a slight upward bias (0.28) due to significant cross-venue pricing discrepancies suggesting higher latent support for Mahan in liquid offshore markets
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department,
33%291 edges · active
Recent kinetic attacks in the Hormuz corridor by Iran confirm high-level escalation, though market participants are increasingly pricing this into transit call metrics. Confidence
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
52%201 edges · active
The thesis holds as inflation signals remain mixed and the core political tensions (Powell/Warsh/Trump) continue to dominate over standard data-driven rate expectations. No materia
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
26%471 edges · active
No material change to the core Hormuz thesis; confidence marginally increased based on the observed resiliency in CPI indicators which aligns with the thesis's concern regarding in
How it works
01
Tell SimpleFunctions what you think
Type any view in plain English. No need to know contract tickers or indicators upfront. SimpleFunctions asks 1-2 clarifying questions if your view is ambiguous.
02
SimpleFunctions surfaces the markets that price your view
Across 33,000+ contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, the AI agent finds the contracts that reflect your specific belief. Each cited market shows live price, volume, expiry.
03
See the three-way gap
Your probability vs market consensus vs SimpleFunctions's calibrated view. Disagreement is where the trade lives. Save the thesis to track it over time, Brier-scored on resolution.
Why this exists
30,023 live contracts
Kalshi + Polymarket normalized, refreshed continuously. Live spreads, depth, cross-venue arb. Cited tickers in every answer.
See live odds →5 live analyst theses
Quantitative cases with confidence + edge estimates. Updated via gitMode (refinement / fork) as evidence shifts.
Browse theses →978,618 markets graded
3+ months of t-24h prediction-vs-outcome history. SimpleFunctions predictions Brier-scored as theses resolve.
See full track record →80+ tools the AI can call
Real-time price lookup, indicator computation, cross-venue scan, history fetch, calibration query. The agent decides which to use mid-conversation.
Read the docs →Calibration disclosure (live)
Full framework →Status: framework live · scoring SimpleFunctions theses as they resolve
Marketwide baseline: Brier 0.263 · hit rate 73% (978,618 markets graded at t-24h)
SimpleFunctions predictions: Tracking… (first SimpleFunctions theses resolving — per-topic Brier appears here as resolutions land)
Frequently asked
What is this — ChatGPT for prediction markets?▾
Yes, exactly. SimpleFunctions is an AI chat that searches 33,000+ live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. Ask any question — "what does the market think about a Fed cut in June?", "show me cross-venue gaps in crypto" — and the AI calls real tools (search, screen, inspect, calibration) to answer with cited tickers, prices, and edge estimates.
How is this different from ChatGPT or Perplexity?▾
ChatGPT and Perplexity synthesize what's been written. SimpleFunctions synthesizes what's being priced — across 33,000+ live prediction-market contracts — with a calibrated second opinion based on its own indicators and Brier-scored track record. The output isn't a synthesis paragraph; it's a tradeable thesis row.
Does it support Kalshi AND Polymarket?▾
Both. Markets are normalized cross-venue, so the AI can spot price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket contracts on the same event. Search, inspect, screen, and history tools cover both venues uniformly.
Does SimpleFunctions make trading decisions for me?▾
No. SimpleFunctions surfaces the markets, shows the gap between your view, market consensus, and SimpleFunctions's calibrated view, and proposes a trade idea. You decide whether to execute. SimpleFunctions does not place trades from /ask.
Can SimpleFunctions be wrong?▾
Yes. SimpleFunctions discloses its full calibration history publicly. Disagreements between SimpleFunctions and the market are signal, not certainty — sometimes the market is right.
What data does SimpleFunctions use to form its view?▾
Three sources: (a) live prediction-market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, (b) live analyst theses with edge estimates, (c) calibrated indicators (implied yield, expected edge, liquidity-adjusted spread, regime detection). All three are queryable mid-conversation.
Why do I need an account to chat?▾
Theses are persistent, trackable, evaluation-graded objects in SimpleFunctions's thesis system. That requires an account. Reading the live odds, theses, and predictions on this page is free without an account.
Can I keep my thesis private?▾
Yes. Theses default to private. Only when you explicitly click "Publish" does it appear at /thesis/[slug] indexable by Google. You can also unpublish at any time.
Start chatting with prediction markets.
Free account · Track unlimited private theses · Publish when ready