AI chat · Kalshi + Polymarket · 31,247 contracts
AI chat for prediction markets.
Ask any question across 31,247 live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. The AI calls real tools — search, screen, inspect, calibration — and returns cited tickers, prices, and a calibrated second opinion.
Live contracts
31,247
Kalshi + Polymarket
Aggregated questions
2,062
662 contested
Cross-venue gaps
0
≥5pp Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live SimpleFunctions theses
5
active analyst stances
SimpleFunctions Index
Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probabilityDisagreement
35
0-100
GeoRisk
0
0-100
Breadth
+0.39
-1 to +1
Activity
67
rolling
Where the market is uncertain
coin-flip distance · liquidity-weightedWill Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game
sports · 20 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026
general · 19 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will Brad Patty be the Republican nominee for MO-05
politics · 13 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
What will Talen Energy Corporation say during their next earnings call
general · 11 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027
markets · 7 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election
politics · 5 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top Kicker
general · 5 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Who will win the next Turkish presidential election
politics · 4 markets · 0pp from coin-flip
Predictions we track
topic feeds with live market countsLive analyst theses
causal model + edge tracking + Brier-scoredCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
44%29 edges · active
No material change to thesis logic; primary election results for Steyer are historical confirmation of the existing frame.
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
27%19 edges · active
No material change in thesis. The recent price action cross-venue is interpreted as market noise rather than fundamental updates to the causal nodes or Mahan's electoral prospects.
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department,
37%302 edges · active
Conflict in Iran has expanded from the Strait to inland infrastructure, confirming escalation, while federal shutdown processes reinforce capacity risks; confidence modestly increa
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
83%219 edges · active
No material change to the thesis. Powell's commitment to finishing his term and the Fed's stance on rates aligns with existing expectations of a contentious transition and politica
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
25%488 edges · active
No material change in thesis confidence. Recent volatility in Hormuz transit call markets and fuel price indices reflects short-term noise rather than a structural shift in the fer
How it works
01
Tell SimpleFunctions what you think
Type any view in plain English. No need to know contract tickers or indicators upfront. SimpleFunctions asks 1-2 clarifying questions if your view is ambiguous.
02
SimpleFunctions surfaces the markets that price your view
Across 33,000+ contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, the AI agent finds the contracts that reflect your specific belief. Each cited market shows live price, volume, expiry.
03
See the three-way gap
Your probability vs market consensus vs SimpleFunctions's calibrated view. Disagreement is where the trade lives. Save the thesis to track it over time, Brier-scored on resolution.
Why this exists
31,247 live contracts
Kalshi + Polymarket normalized, refreshed continuously. Live spreads, depth, cross-venue arb. Cited tickers in every answer.
See live odds →5 live analyst theses
Quantitative cases with confidence + edge estimates. Updated via gitMode (refinement / fork) as evidence shifts.
Browse theses →993,316 markets graded
3+ months of t-24h prediction-vs-outcome history. SimpleFunctions predictions Brier-scored as theses resolve.
See full track record →80+ tools the AI can call
Real-time price lookup, indicator computation, cross-venue scan, history fetch, calibration query. The agent decides which to use mid-conversation.
Read the docs →Calibration disclosure (live)
Full framework →Status: framework live · scoring SimpleFunctions theses as they resolve
Marketwide baseline: Brier 0.264 · hit rate 72% (993,316 markets graded at t-24h)
SimpleFunctions predictions: Tracking… (first SimpleFunctions theses resolving — per-topic Brier appears here as resolutions land)
Frequently asked
What is this — ChatGPT for prediction markets?▾
Yes, exactly. SimpleFunctions is an AI chat that searches 33,000+ live Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. Ask any question — "what does the market think about a Fed cut in June?", "show me cross-venue gaps in crypto" — and the AI calls real tools (search, screen, inspect, calibration) to answer with cited tickers, prices, and edge estimates.
How is this different from ChatGPT or Perplexity?▾
ChatGPT and Perplexity synthesize what's been written. SimpleFunctions synthesizes what's being priced — across 33,000+ live prediction-market contracts — with a calibrated second opinion based on its own indicators and Brier-scored track record. The output isn't a synthesis paragraph; it's a tradeable thesis row.
Does it support Kalshi AND Polymarket?▾
Both. Markets are normalized cross-venue, so the AI can spot price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket contracts on the same event. Search, inspect, screen, and history tools cover both venues uniformly.
Does SimpleFunctions make trading decisions for me?▾
No. SimpleFunctions surfaces the markets, shows the gap between your view, market consensus, and SimpleFunctions's calibrated view, and proposes a trade idea. You decide whether to execute. SimpleFunctions does not place trades from /ask.
Can SimpleFunctions be wrong?▾
Yes. SimpleFunctions discloses its full calibration history publicly. Disagreements between SimpleFunctions and the market are signal, not certainty — sometimes the market is right.
What data does SimpleFunctions use to form its view?▾
Three sources: (a) live prediction-market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, (b) live analyst theses with edge estimates, (c) calibrated indicators (implied yield, expected edge, liquidity-adjusted spread, regime detection). All three are queryable mid-conversation.
Why do I need an account to chat?▾
Theses are persistent, trackable, evaluation-graded objects in SimpleFunctions's thesis system. That requires an account. Reading the live odds, theses, and predictions on this page is free without an account.
Can I keep my thesis private?▾
Yes. Theses default to private. Only when you explicitly click "Publish" does it appear at /thesis/[slug] indexable by Google. You can also unpublish at any time.
Start chatting with prediction markets.
Free account · Track unlimited private theses · Publish when ready