Will Marion Cotillard be cast in The White Lotus
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$573
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
537 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Oscar Isaac be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Oscar Isaac be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Oscar Isaac
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-OSC
Cluster 2
Will Jodie Comer be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Jodie Comer be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Jodie Comer
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JOD
Cluster 3
Will Adam Driver be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Adam Driver be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Adam Driver
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-ADA
Cluster 4
Will Andrew Scott be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Andrew Scott be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Andrew Scott
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-AND
Cluster 5
Will Barry Keoghan be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Barry Keoghan be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Barry Keoghan
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-BAR
Cluster 6
Will Cate Blanchett be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Cate Blanchett be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Cate Blanchett
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-CAT
Cluster 7
Will Deepika Padukone be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Deepika Padukone be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Deepika Padukone
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-DEE
Cluster 8
Will Dev Patel be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Dev Patel be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Dev Patel
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-DEV
Cluster 9
Will Emma Corrin be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Emma Corrin be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Emma Corrin
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-EMM
Cluster 10
Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Florence Pugh
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-FLO
Cluster 11
Will Isabelle Huppert be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Isabelle Huppert be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Isabelle Huppert
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-ISA
Cluster 12
Will Jacob Elordi be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Jacob Elordi be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Jacob Elordi
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JAC
Cluster 13
Will Jeremy Strong be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Jeremy Strong be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Jeremy Strong
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-JER
Cluster 14
Will Léa Seydoux be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Léa Seydoux be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Léa Seydoux
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-LEA
Cluster 15
Will Marion Cotillard be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Marion Cotillard be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Marion Cotillard
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-MAR
Cluster 16
Will Olivia Colman be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Olivia Colman be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Olivia Colman
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-OLI
Cluster 17
Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Paul Mescal
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-PAU
Cluster 18
Will Phoebe Waller-Bridge be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Phoebe Waller-Bridge be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-PHO
Cluster 19
Will Rachel Weisz be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Rachel Weisz be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Rachel Weisz
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-RAC
Cluster 20
Will Riz Ahmed be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4
Will Riz Ahmed be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?: Riz Ahmed
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-RIZ
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that actress Marion Cotillard will join the cast of The White Lotus Season 4. The 7% level reflects relatively low confidence compared to other speculated French actresses like Léa Seydoux (15%), suggesting market participants view Cotillard as a less probable choice for the upcoming season. Several factors influence this assessment: casting decisions typically depend on schedule availability, the show's geographic setting for that season, and creative preferences of the showrunner. The uncertainty will resolve once HBO/Max officially announces Season 4's cast, which typically occurs during pre-production announcements or through entertainment news outlets. Currently, minimal trading volume ($45 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market interest in this particular contract, making the probability estimate less heavily tested than higher-volume contracts.
- ›Léa Seydoux trades at over double Cotillard's probability (15% vs 7%), indicating market belief in stronger likelihood of casting other prominent French actresses
- ›Trading volume for Cotillard contract is low relative to other speculative casting markets, suggesting limited conviction behind current pricing
- ›Season 4's narrative setting and character requirements have not been publicly confirmed, preventing analysts from assessing Cotillard's fit for specific roles
- ›Cotillard's recent project commitments and availability for filming timeline during The White Lotus production schedule remain unknown
- ›The show's historical casting pattern shows preference for established ensemble casts, with no confirmed announcements about lead or supporting roles for Season 4
What moved the line
- Jul 6Season 4?: Jodie Comer↑12pp12→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Season 4?: Jodie Comer↓8pp26→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Season 4?: Deepika Padukone↑7pp7→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Season 4?: Oscar Isaac↑6pp46→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Season 4?: Jodie Comer↑6pp18→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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