Oil Spikes 12% — Biggest Commodity Move Signals Macro Stress

USO surged nearly 12% in a single session, a massive outlier move. With VIX elevated at $33.59, gold pulling back 1.8%, and S&P barely positive (+0.12%), this oil spike amid risk-off signals suggests a supply disruption or geopolitical escalation — possibly related to the 56% US-Iran invasion odds. Fertilizer prices and recession odds are also climbing.