Russian Offensive Stalling — Capture Odds Falling Across Multiple Fronts

Kostyantynivka capture by April dropped 4pts to 12%, Lyman by June fell 4pts to 28%. Multiple Ukrainian front-line markets are showing declining Russian capture probabilities simultaneously. Yet ceasefire odds remain stuck at just 30%, suggesting a grinding stalemate rather than any peace breakthrough. Ukraine peace deal before 2027 sits at only 26%.