This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Callum Turner | 46.0% |
No Bond chosen | 36.5% |
Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 7.5% |
Henry Cavill | 3.4% |
Jacob Elordi | 1.4% |
Tom Holland | 0.9% |
Tom Hardy | 0.7% |
CurrentJames Norton | 0.4% |
Harris Dickinson | 0.3% |
Jack Lowdon | 0.2% |
Paul Mescal | 0.1% |
Pierce Brosnan | 0.1% |
Person 20 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 9 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 10 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 11 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 12 | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Person 13 | 0.0% |
Person 14 | 0.0% |
Person 15 | 0.0% |
Person 16 | 0.0% |
Person 17 | 0.0% |
Person 18 | 0.0% |
Person 19 | 0.0% |
A woman | 0.0% |
Placeholder 4 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 5 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 6 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 7 | 0.0% |
Placeholder 8 | 0.0% |
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| 50.0% |
| $0 |
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Kalshi | 3.0% | $207 | Trade |
Kalshi | 19.0% | $143 | Trade |
Kalshi | 50.0% | $0 | Trade |