This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent. For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
March 31, 2026 | 7.5% |
October 31 | 0.0% |
CurrentDecember 31 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |