If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Maryland | 100.0% |
Florida | 100.0% |
Michigan | 100.0% |
Virginia | 99.3% |
New Jersey | 97.9% |
New York | 95.7% |
California | 85.5% |
Pennsylvania | 85.0% |
Ohio | 75.0% |
Alaska | 73.5% |
Georgia | 73.0% |
North Carolina | 72.5% |
Texas | 70.5% |
Nevada | 61.5% |
Wisconsin | 61.5% |
CurrentArizona | 59.0% |
West Virginia | 55.5% |
South Dakota | 53.5% |
New Mexico | 52.0% |
Maine | 51.5% |
Hawaii | 51.0% |
Kansas | 51.0% |
Illinois | 50.0% |
Arkansas | 50.0% |
Colorado | 50.0% |
Connecticut | 50.0% |
Delaware | 50.0% |
Iowa | 50.0% |
Kentucky | 50.0% |
Louisiana | 50.0% |
Massachusetts | 50.0% |
Minnesota | 50.0% |
Mississippi | 50.0% |
Nebraska | 50.0% |
North Dakota | 50.0% |
Rhode Island | 50.0% |
South Carolina | 50.0% |
Tennessee | 50.0% |
Indiana | 49.5% |
Idaho | 48.5% |
New Hampshire | 48.5% |
Alabama | 48.5% |
Montana | 48.5% |
Missouri | 48.5% |
Utah | 48.5% |
Oregon | 48.5% |
Oklahoma | 48.5% |
Vermont | 24.5% |
Washington | 22.5% |
Wyoming | 17.0% |