Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. The 28¢ price reflects modest confidence in Hong's primary chances, but the extraordinarily high 809% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity—with just $65 in 24-hour volume against $15k open interest, this market lacks depth to support meaningful position-building.
Analysis
The 28¢ price reflects modest confidence in Hong's primary chances, but the extraordinarily high 809% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity—with just $65 in 24-hour volume against $15k open interest, this market lacks depth to support meaningful position-building. The 2¢ spread is tight, yet the recent 2-cent decline from 30¢ over seven days suggests mild downward pressure, possibly indicating shifting sentiment as the August 2026 primary approaches in 116 days. The neutral regime score and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggest stable conditions, but traders should be cautious given the thin liquidity and extreme yield skew, which typically reflects pricing inefficiency rather than genuine opportunity.
Also on kalshi at 38¢(Δ -4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x00925aafdbb3fbec14b49f343eb430ddb9cc1f827e5934b5513703d13f2851de yes 100