Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Francesca Hong
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Sara Rodriguez
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$327
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
56 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will win Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, currently priced at 40% compared to a 37% runner-up. The Democratic primary winner matters because Wisconsin is a swing state where the general election outcome often depends on the party nominee's viability and appeal to suburban and working-class voters. The current pricing likely reflects differences in candidate name recognition, organizational strength, and perceived electability in a general election matchup. The primary election date and any major candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling shifts would be key drivers of probability movement. Market participants are factoring in candidate funding levels, union support, and regional strength, though uncertainty remains relatively high given the close margin between leading candidates.
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and spending capacity relative to the leading competitor (data typically reported quarterly)
- ›Endorsements from established Democratic figures and labor unions, which signal organizational backing and voter mobilization capacity
- ›Polling data within Wisconsin showing candidate name recognition and favorability trends among Democratic primary voters
- ›Historical turnout patterns in Wisconsin Democratic primaries and candidate ability to activate base voters in key regions
- ›Timing of the primary election and any dropouts or late-entry candidates that could consolidate support
What moved the line
- Jun 15Mandela Barnes↓19pp39→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12Mandela Barnes↓10pp51→41¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 8Francesca Hong↓8pp32→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Francesca Hong↑6pp26→32¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13Francesca Hong↑6pp35→41¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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