Will the San Francisco Giants win more than 82.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility characteristic of a low-activity long-dated sports contract, with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,037.60 open interest and a massive 39¢ bid-ask spread. The 21¢ price implies only a 21% probability the Giants exceed 82.5 wins—a below-.500 record projection—which appears pessimistic for a franchise with recent competitive history, though the 815.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the speculative nature of the thin market. The sharp 5¢ price decline over seven days combined with a 402% realized volatility and 4.0 Cliff Risk Index suggests this contract is highly sensitive to sentiment shifts, and the absence of Kalshi pricing data prevents cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "O 82.5" if the San Francisco Giants win more than 82.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the San Francisco Giants to record more than 82.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 82.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade