Miami Marlins win more than 74.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season
Miami Marlins is priced at 53¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 40¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 26¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals.
Price history
53¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "O 74.5" if the Miami Marlins win more than 74.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Miami Marlins to record more than 74.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 74.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Miami Marlins
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Chicago White Sox 91¢
Range
15¢-91¢
Family volume
$78K
Identifier
0xfc908b1d...52a5
Jun 7, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
26¢
Reported volume
$23K
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals
Closes
Oct 5, 2026
Family volume
$78K
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "O 74.5" if the Miami Marlins win more than 74.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Miami Marlins to record more than 74.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 74.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 5, 2026
Identifier
0xfc908b1d…52a5
Event family
MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$78K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Chicago White Sox 91¢
Current share
29%
Chicago White Sox
polymarket · 0xbd5e702534c99e27ee625f3c9281464c9d9e391317fa700324de6f63c215a798
Milwaukee Brewers
polymarket · 0x5d72a1a1761682b3855c0d49f0c4161574bc65cc2b77750b10de22bd237416f5
Cleveland Guardians
polymarket · 0x5acf91a1ec3866295fed2139742d380ffa68fd197ee2f58b2e7594317d44ec4d
Los Angeles Dodgers
polymarket · 0x786dcfcad0134d3a5c6c7933207e1041d95f63af0ea42ee800cc592e9f3fed6d
San Diego Padres
polymarket · 0xb4e6e267453558041f62c4114c23df0660b49ca29a1e88f943a79e538ff45845
Arizona Diamondbacks
polymarket · 0xa6e830a2b39949524c58e7ab4977e992a3463a0c36e63f6bab44e0f531092180
Miami Marlins
polymarket · 0xfc908b1d7ba8020a4508756554aaf5042b4be8cab8a8d35bd7622bf18bb352a5
Pittsburgh Pirates
polymarket · 0x040d2a8549a0652aaaa12f634bfa8aefe81b4238836691c94699ba5f0d4662f8
Houston Astros
polymarket · 0x24e16c617c114cd32afbb2dc7c6f14a9fabc5c7eb04b1c377ac215eee1ac227a
Seattle Mariners
polymarket · 0x18ea0e3d1a4e01d397d27c075418c4c503f6c4d361cd0acd68f6ca69cb02517e
Athletics
polymarket · 0xe1f7738825ecb84c58838737ac860a452dbbaa454217683a2acd7feb939d155b
Toronto Blue Jays
polymarket · 0xdf12355081cd896d27ff01031bddd00ed0f52671416ca53d45f0015f39913c3b
Colorado Rockies
polymarket · 0x3c2688a98b98d826a617d4230b722a88c44d2e39a7a3441bbfc65a38889684b8
Cincinnati Reds
polymarket · 0x52fa6e23ffbfb3becb559844d778723d81c7174e5da0715355af406e5308a54b
Boston Red Sox
polymarket · 0xfb3e0b1be7c5f091a5764911442c125e8800b8b895207df8bead9f35d17c6bd8
Baltimore Orioles
polymarket · 0xe85d2c9896019f4f998f444648b5748a96f90bc5e8fd78cb6e07dfbb2aecf9c6
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.